Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
