Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
